08 Handicaping Part I

2008-New Handicapping (GOP) Part I

This is my new Handicapping of situations flowing into the 08 primary sequences.

-House and Senate members and leaders-

Right now with the run amok spending, with congresses real failures to address immigration reform or do what the republican base views as “Logical” for homeland security the entire congressional leadership will be blacklisted so far as the primary voters are concerned. McCain will still on name recognition have some degree of viability. And pending the G.E in 06 we will know if George Allen can also put up a campaign. *IF* a strong G.E comes up in Virginia at best you’ll see is McCain and Brownback being the only people who can make their way out of the senate. If Allen coasts back to the senate you will see Allen running strong against all the congressional delegates running for the presidency.

Newt could have a chance right now as the House leadership seems to be running so bad that the worst of the 94-96” era look down right friendly in comparison. Newt also shows a real tendency for Ideas which right now few other candidates have.

Tom Tancredo will be running if the Primary is Lean on the Bush philosophy on immigration. And Tancredo will be either the #2 or #3 vote getter if the front runner becomes more pro-bush on his immigration policy.

House and Senate members you will see (past or Present) in the GOP Primary in 08

McCain, Newt, Allen (unless he gets beat down from his primary), Brownback (who if Allen is in the race will fall to the side) and Tancredo. When it comes time for the voters to actually put down a ballot you will see McCain and Tancredo ( it will take an act of god to take them out of their mad quest) Allen or Brownback but not both ( Most likely Allen). Newt making it into the Primary phase will require a weird series of events to occur.