Geffen, who was a generous supporter and pal of Bill Clinton when he was president, trashed Hillary's prospects last night during a Q&A at the 92nd St. Y in New York City.
"She can't win, and she's an incredibly polarizing figure," the billionaire Democrat told his audience. "And ambition is just not a good enough reason."
this is good cause i was working along these same lines
Why She won't win, and how she can
Let us start off with a little history
Last US Senator to win was JFK, before him Warren Harding. Both of them were
in parties that held control of congress.
That last Democrat to win an open primary before Kennedy was Cleveland.
Of the party with the incumbency or the open slot being from its origin the
republicans only lost 92,76, 60, 32 and none earlier. Three of these were
defeating weakened incumbents
The democrats however have 2000,1976,1968,1952 of those only one was
defeating an incumbent who was weakened.
So when the position is open (2000,1988, 1968, 1960, 1952,1928,1920,1908)
the democrats have only won a single race since the start of the 20th
century (1960)
In races with the incumbent (2004,1996,1992,1984,
1980,1976,1972,1964,1956,1948,1944,1940,1936,1932,1924) we see incumbent
defeats in the following
1932: Great Depression
1976:Watergate fatigue
1980: Jimmy "malaise forever" carter
1992: Out of touch George Bush
While the GOP won only one race against an incumbent, the trends against the
first two (Watergate and the Depression) were unique, and the third could
have been beaten.
And of those who won in those situations we had 3 outsiders (Clinton,
Reagan, and Carter) 3 Reformers (FDR, Reagan, Clinton) and 3 with
institutional control of congress (Carter, FDR, and Clinton)
Historical 12-year administrations in the 20th century (a President and a
successor of his party)
Reagan-Bush
FDR-Truman * (this one was more then 12 years)
McKinley-Taft* (this one was also more then 12 years)
Failed attempts at a 12 year administration
Wilson-Cox(?)
Eisenhower-Nixon
Johnson-Humphrey (though it would have been K-J-H)
Clinton-Gore
So what did JFK have that was so great?
He was the very generation that had just fought WWII. He represented all of those who had bled for Ike himself. While Hillary doesn't have that she could run as the Avatar of all Women... she could be the "Woman coming to the white house" to inspire with a mothers toughness and her compassion
but... Women aren't like the "greatest Generation" there is no way to be all of them, and still have the juice to win a primary
Second thing Kennedy did was he outhawked Ike... and left Nixon forced to defend policies he didn't agree with
For Hillary to do this she'd have to target illegal immigrants and mulsim pressure groups which would kill her in a Democratic primary
she aint going to win the primary, and that means no General election dance card for her
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