Thursday, March 02, 2006

Many things you know are wrong

The top "guy who was responsible" Theory for the Destruction of the Golden Mosque was Al-Qaeda's franchise man in Iraq Al-Zarqawi. But some of the folks in the Iraqi government have proposed an alternative theory.

Several prominent Sunni and independent Shiite figures have pointed out that Iran was the major party that stood to reap huge benefits from tensions between Sunnis and Shiites, at a time when U.S. diplomacy, spearheaded by Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, had succeeded in bringing together the various Iraqi factions to form a national unity government not under Iran’s influence.

Now..... I'd like to say I can totally toss that bad boy but I can't. I've been a huge beliver that Iran is proping up Al-Sadr but let me go into another reason this happened which goes against what many people are stupid about.

"Iran and Shia Iraq would join togther in an alliance or merger if they were allowed to join togther."

Iranians are not Arabs, they are Persians. And their are elements of Persian national culture that tend to look down on Arabs like...ooooooooh the ones already living in Iran.

Risk Assessment

With such a closed society, projecting the actual condition of Iranian Arabs is difficult. Nevertheless, President Khatami’s moderate regime (in power since 1997) appears not to have singled out Arabs as a potential threat (unlike other Iranian ethnopolitical groups such as Bahai, Christians, or Kurds). Yet, because of the Iranian government’s centralization policies, it appears unlikely that the Iranian Arab desire for a measure of autonomy will be recognized anytime soon. If moderate elements in Iran can hold off its sizable conservative challengers however, there is probably no immediate risk to Iran’s Arabs.

Analytic Summary

Arabs have been present in Iran dating back 12 centuries. The main factor that differentiates them from Iran's Persian speaking majority is their racial distinction, and that they speak one of several dialects of Arabic (CULDIFX1, CULDIFX2 = 2). They live in the southern regions of Iran with the majority living in the province of Khuzestan while others live along the coast of the Persian Gulf; Iranian Arabs are also evenly split between urban and rural dwellers (REGIONAL = 1; GROUPCON = 3). Most of the Arabs living in Khuzestan are Shi'i Muslims, and most of those living along the coast of the Persian Gulf are Sunni Muslims (RELIG1 = 4), with slightly more Sunni than Shi’a overall. Their affiliation of being Arab seems less decided by race than by whichever sect of Islam they practice (e.g., the Arab population of Khuzestan sided with Iran during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s).

These folks live Along the Border Areas with the Shia south in Iraq. So first of all an independent Shia Iraq would be a source of fear in both Iran and Saudi Arabia that bordering Shia areas would want to go and merge with their brothers in Basra. But the Saudi folk and the Iranians have another reason to worry.

Democracy....Similar minorities in neighboring areas and Grand Ayatollah Sistani actually wanting legitimate Democratization of the political state of Iraq. They don't want a Democratic Shia governed Iraq next door....because that means they will have internalized pressure groups trying to force Democracy

so now you know why both are funneling Agents provecatuers into Iraq

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