Another attack in 90 days, utter hogwash:

Ok, I was over at Faux News and I saw an Israeli Counter Terrorism expert say based on “chatter” an attack is eminent in 90 days at the most here in the US. And I am going to call that line of thinking Hogwash.



This is not to say I am calling him wrong, I am saying that if I was thinking like a Salaifascist Muslim out there attacking the US right now would be the last thing I would do.



The First reason I say this is Hogwash is Impact. What causes more Impact right now; an attack in NY, Atlanta, L.A, D.C, or Chicago vs. an Attack in Rome, Warsaw, or Paris? When Islamic Extremists are very active in Europe and recruiting a new generation of mujahadin there, which do you think is more important? Hurting the US or showing that they can humiliate the European societies that have them living as paupers? Also what hurts the US more the death of a few thousand American citizens, or the deaths of less then 100 European citizens putting a chill in every European nation that “If you support the US your people die”. Attacking the US isn’t the most effective thing for Al-Qaeda to do right now.



The Second reason I say this is hogwash is resources. The vast Majority of our incoming Middle Eastern immigrant pool is Christian, well motivated, and well educated. We do not have large communities of second and third generation Muslims who view this country as something they are not a part of. You are less likely to have potential sympathizers, and less likely to have potential new recruits. What this country has done best is provide funding to charities that can be skimmed to fund terrorist projects, and this important project is limited if to many Americans get blown up



The third reason I say this is Hogwash is economy. If Al-Qaeda wants a high US death toll bang for their buck, they can attack some US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. This requires less money then supporting and supervising cells in the US. With the global effort to restrict their funds, even limiting attacks to cheaper opportunities isn’t bad



The fourth reason is methodology. Al-Qaeda has been known to run complex schemes for the purpose of getting caught. Why you ask? Because it allows them to sniff out how the US anti-terror system works. They space their operations out years in advance. Why you ask? Because just like the mafia they know a big round of bloodshed makes it more –not less- likely that their people will get caught by the authorities if they do anything bad. A US attack right now would be totally out of character.



Well folks, this is why I am cautious but not overly worried about terrorism in this country right now. I think to my self well “what would I be doing now if I were a terrorist in this country?” And the answer is waiting for the right time, and right place to strike. This hasn’t happened because the right time and right place to hurt the US has been outside its borders.