Tuesday, September 27, 2005

From the Bostonian Exile

another Raging Rino ( who could use some track backs) he points us to a great Washington Post article here

lets put some reality to the calls for 06 to be the new 94

But the party's problems are structural and can be explained by three numbers: 21, 34 and 45. According to the network exit polls, 21 percent of the voters who cast ballots in 2004 called themselves liberal, 34 percent said they were conservative and 45 percent called themselves moderate.

Those numbers mean that liberal-leaning Democrats are far more dependent than conservatively inclined Republicans on alliances with the political center. Democrats second-guess themselves because they have to.

But we all know that self-identification is a bit problematic ( as far lefty reporters often claim to be "middle of the road")

Or consider the lay of the land for the 2006 congressional elections. It takes 218 seats to form a majority in the House of Representatives. Kerry carried only 180 congressional districts, according to the Almanac of American Politics. Put another way, Democrats, according to the Almanac, now hold and have to defend 41 House districts that Bush carried. Republicans are defending only 18 districts that Kerry carried.

This could be the Kryptonite here. While we do have such famous examples ( south Dakota) of ticket splitting that obviously can't be the whole story.

The republicans in the house and in the senate just have more safe seats.

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