Haloscan is down so here is a post reply

Haloscan is down, this sucks. However because Haloscan is down I get to have more Blogger styled fun. Dean over at Dean’s World decided to make a post based off of my book review of Condi vs. Hillary that combined with the Marist poll I saw over on ABP I decided to go into the full detailed picture of why I don’t see The Hildabeast going to the White House. I don’t even see her making it to the General Election either.

1. Lay of the Land –Southern Edition-. The Democrats haven’t won with anyone who wasn’t a southerner. And having a southerner come out and campaign for you doesn’t help (Example: Bill Clinton went down to Arkansas to campaign for Kerry and Kerry’s support actually went DOWN). With her voting record that is Pro-ACLU, Pro-AFL-CIO, Pro-Choice, Pro-Every default Democratic Party position she can’t even make a real sell as a Southern Fried Democrat. This means the South doesn’t budge in 08 if she is nominated. We also know if she loses Georgia, Texas, and Florida that is a major hurdle in the race for the white house.


2. Lay of the Land –Western Edition-. Same as the South she doesn’t really have any positions or support base at the moment to pull off a Maverick “I’m really conservative guys” position that you see potential 08 candidate Bill Richardson doing in New Mexico.


3. Lay of the Land-Upper Midwest Edition-. She also doesn’t address the fights the Democrats have had in Wisconsin and Minnesota, and to a lesser extent Michigan. A “Native Son” on the ticket gives the Democrats better field position to keep those races from being competitive so they can focus on some swingable areas especially in the South and the West. The bleeding of the Upper Midwest is why places like West Virginia have started to trend republican because they’ve had the cash to put the people on the ground.


4. Bill Clinton: Bill is a very large metaphysical issue in the life of Hillary. In the 90s Morris did some polling for Clinton that talked of how the American people didn’t like the thought of a secret puppet master in the bedroom. Unless Hillary runs hard away from Bill (which may be the only way for her to win the nomination) this psychological problem will flair up again. Hillary will likely call back much of Bill’s “Council of War” but here is the thing…. Even with Dick Morris Bill couldn’t get 50%+1. It is doubtful we’ll have a strong third party at this stage so that means she is trying to run with a team that has never “Won” a race.


5. Bill Clinton Part II: The far left hates Bill Clinton. They had to stay on their back bench and bite their lip for 8 years of Clinton. If Hillary runs as “More of the Clinton Mojo” a strong portion of the base will be against her. Factor that in with the poor track record of Iowa with women candidates there is a strong chance Hillary will lose the first caucus of the Primary season out the box. But If Hillary chooses to Run as her own candidate we have problems. In her entire life before the Senate race Hillary has accomplished nothing. In fact the Health Care mess she did was largely a product of her staffers sitting in a back room (her commission was a sham). Add to that a John Kerryesque Senate record and she has done nothing. She can’t run on Bill and be effective, but if she runs on Bill she is all celebrity and fluff.


6. The Clinton Scandals: The fact of the matter is while she was investigated in many of these scandals; she was investigated as an accessory not the head conspirator. If a democrat or even republican sells it that way the Clinton scandals will be a slow bleed in the 08 election. Add into that her questionable 2000 senate campaign and we have a nice pot of scandal stew.


7. Iraq: Iraq is a problem for Hillary. As a woman if she goes too Anti-War (no matter what the conditions on the ground are) it will make her look weak on national security issues. If she isn’t running as Anti-War candidate with the war in Iraq as status quo or worse the majority of the voters in the Democratic primary will be to dove to vote for her. Her only way to be Pro-War and have it work is if things get better in Iraq. But If things get better in Iraq the Democrats de facto Anti-War pose prior to 08 will make them the weaker party. She supported the war so she has to rope in the doves, she needs to look strong on war to be viable to most Americans so she can’t be anti-war. So the Iraq situation is Lose/Lose for her.


8. Liberation of the Middle East: by 08 we’ll probably (without a major shift to the negative) have another successful election in Iraq and probably their first round of amendments to their constitution. Lebanon will have had successful Post-Syria. A possibility of a Palestinian state existing on paper and having –relatively- free elections. Hillary hasn’t stood with the President on this issue –at all- if things go as well as the trends say they are much of the Foreign policy issues she has had the chance to work on in the Armed Services committee will be cold, and the republicans could run a “where were you” campaign. Her only way the events in the Middle East could be helpful is if everything goes absolutely wrong.


9. No Positive Vision: Look at John Kerry and Al Gore. Neither of them sold a Positive Vision for America. If you look at Hillary to present (and she has a bit of time to turn this one around). President’s win –especially ones with parties out of power- By selling a positive vision for America. Bill played generational politics as his over reaching theme and “I’m a new Democrat”. He also sold that he could get the economy purring like a kitten. Ronnie had “It’s morning in America” and sold a call back to greatness. George W. Bush had the compassionate conservative thing. Without a positive Vision Hillary won’t win. And the track record of Democratic National campaigns since 00 has been a sign it won’t happen. And since Hillary has been part of the National campaigns she hasn’t voiced up an alternate vision… she’ll have to find it like Paul on the road to Damascus.


10. Personality: Hillary has a very negative personality. Many writers have pointed to this. On the National campaign trail (vs. the almost de facto vote she’ll get in NY) we are likely to see that snappiness come out. Snappy personality hurt Kerry, it Hurt Gore, and it has hurt bush in the past when it came out. Hillary hasn’t shown an ability to discipline it yet so it is likely to be a problem on her campaign.


11. On the Stump: Hillary’s voice in stump speeches is just one world apocalyptic. And by that I mean revelatory. It reveals a voice that is shrill; it reveals a voice that evokes all the stereotypes of the angry feminist. And If Hillary gets into an impassioned speech on the stump it will come out. We Americans tend to like our figureheads, and that’s what a President is… a figure head… to be presentable. If Hillary can’t effectively speak on the stump she is dead (see John Kerry). Bush in 00 and for some of 04 –could- speak effectively.


12. Personality part II: Hillary plays a card when she is attacked of “I am the avatar of all women” that is her way to distance herself from the attacks on her actions “It’s just because I am a (strong, working, independent, etc) Woman. She hasn’t had much of a need to pull it out of the olde handbag as a Senator but now not only is she exceedingly rich, she is also exceedingly powerful. Further more this is part of Hillary’s overall negative political worldview (a Nixonian or Johnson world of enemies) which American’s haven’t had in a long time. More “Vast Right Wing Conspiracy” talk will make it harder for her to run as an effective candidate. The old stuff will be a serious problem.


13. The Dan Rather Factor: The mainstream media did a lot to work as an unpaid arm of the Democratic Party in 04. And we can see them working hard on it for 06. If the media is blatant in covering for Hillary she might make it to the general election but it can and will backlash. And with an outsider Republican as a almost certain candidate the media will have little attack fodder.


14. Moveon.org, ET. Al.: the grassroots of the party is far to the left of the expressed public mainstream. Hillary is already behind the 8-ball with them. But unlike Bill who had the famous Sister Souljah moment Hillary hasn’t taken one yet. And she’s had great opportunities to do so. Take Cindy Sheehan…Cindy has backed movements funded and organized by communist parties and called for people to refuse to pay taxes. The woman is clearly a nut. Hillary could attack her and say “Opposing the War is a noble cause, but embracing communists and cop killers is not.” Take Louis Farakhan and his comments about the bombing of the levees in New Orleans. Hillary could have taken a free shot at him when he was in D.C. she won’t show the general election audience a willing to stand up to the far end of her base, nor will she kiss up to a base that hates her. Political cowardice of the highest order thy name is Hillary.


15. The Budget: Hillary has voted for every spending Increase her party has backed. Other then trying to down the bush tax cut – and what democrat hasn’t- she’s not backed a single move of fiscal restraint. She has voted for more in spending then she has in getting the money to spend. A lot of smart folks in the Democratic party want to turn the Democrats back into the party of fiscal discipline ( which is good) We see the Republican base pushing their party back to fiscal discipline ( go us). If Hillary runs against an outside D.C republican with a budget cutting/government shrinking history she loses the issue. I don’t see how she can get ahead of the issue and be viable in the Democratic primary as the primary environment is today.


16. The Leadership thing: As Dean pointed out to me in IM Nixon and Kennedy didn’t have an impressive legislative track record. And as I pointed out to Dean they both were solid red hunter in the Senate. They took the lead on –something-. To date Hillary hasn’t gotten out in front on any issue. She hasn’t done a Ted Kennedy and made a bill happen. She hasn’t been strong pushing for say –Able Danger- investigations. She hasn’t pushed the White House on the border. Hillary has warmed a chair, pretty much that’s it.


17. Political Geography-The Hispanic vote-: Republicans have been making huge Inroads into the Hispanic community. I think the party that puts a Hispanic at the top (Richardson) could win the whole pot in the Hispanic vote lottery. I don’t see the Mojo working for a second place Hispanic ( we all saw how well John Edwards did in North Carolina as VP).


18. Political Geography –The Black vote-: While election 04 wasn’t a good factor on the issue, Republicans have been making huge inroads with evangelical and middle class blacks. Hillary’s husband did –nothing- of any significance for the Black community. An effective Republican candidate can focus on how Bill Clinton was more concerned about racial prejudice against –WHITE- people then African-Americans in all 8 of his years. The fact Bill was put in an African-American hall of fame in Arkansas. This could all be used effectively to turn the blacks against Hillary.


19. Political Geography –The Jewish Question-: Bill came to Florida to reassure the Jewish voters that John Kerry would be good for Israel. And the Jewish-Democratic enclaves of south Florida had low Democrat turn out. Hillary embraced Suha Arafat. Hillary hasn’t authored one bill to support Israel. As near as I can tell she hasn’t co-sponsored. Hillary will, in playing a tight-conservative campaign to the general election will embrace the borderline Anti-Semitic left and further the shift of religious Jews to the Republican Party. This is bad news for Florida, Ohio, and many other strong Jewish-Democrat enclaves. And if Bush sees a Palestinian state by 08 the Jewish vote will be stronger in the republican camp ( provided a major betrayal doesn’t happen)


20. Hillary is creative with the truth: We have the Sir Edmund Hillary claim (that she was named after him, utterly untrue) we also have the 9-11 claims (she claimed Chelsea was in the area when the attacks occurred.) At least when Al Gore got creative with elements of his bio (and John Kerry to) they were at least creative in the same neighborhood things actually happened in.


21. 2004 Campaign: I don’t subscribe to the Clinton sabotage theory. But what I do subscribe to is the fact that many grassroots activists on the left would believe she and her likely 2008 team did tank the Kerry campaign. Add into that a probable Candidate John Kerry and this will be a major source of bleeding in the 2008 race on the primary and general election.


22. Bill Clinton Part III –the foreign policy snafu’s-: Bill allowed North Korea to covertly build nukes under his watch (the carter deal was a sham), Bill had a chance to get Osama bin Laden (and given the fact this country has kidnapped criminals with less cases then Bin Laden his claims are dubious), Bill gave a pass to Russian companies building atomic facilities in Iran. Every major foreign policy issue that we will have to worry about in 08, bubba dropped the ball. Unless she runs hard against Bill this will be a liability.


23. Bill Clinton Part IV-Angry Bill-: Notice some of the testiness when Bill in interviews lashed at the media for their role in the Clinton Scandals? He did that when his book “My Life” comes out. Now take a look at what will happen when his old scandals and the new ones from Hillary’s senate career get bought out. Hillary and Bill could both snap on an audience easily. This will deflate their image very sharply.


24. Bush Derangement Syndrome: Right now no one is really hot to trot motivated for any democratic candidate. They are motivated to “get the republicans”. Without foot soldiers that are motivated to ELECT Hillary we will not see her win.


25. Her far leftist past: she worked for communist lawyers, defended black panthers, and was a radical of a radical. This past is bound to have more “I didn’t Inhale” moments.

That’s just the 25 things that have come to my mind right now…..

I could easily list another 25 things that are weak points for her candidacy. She is a celebrity and we all see how well the celebrity candidacy did for John McCain.

She won’t win and is to flawed to win.