Gasoline is cheaper than it was before Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans. Consumer confidence jumped last month and new home sales hit a record. The stock market has been rising. Even the nation's beleaguered factories appear to be headed for a happy holiday season.
By most measures, the economy appears to be doing just fine. No, scratch that, it appears to be booming.
But as always with the United States economy, it is not quite that simple.
If this was president Gore or Kerry the New York times would be recording "President gets economy out of rut"
It all means that the economy is likely to end the year with a splash, but that does not mean the broad economic picture next year will be even better. Indeed, the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development said today that the United States economy is likely to be a repeat of 2005. The O.E.C.D. projected that 2005 growth will settle at 3.6 percent, down from 4.2 percent in 2004. The O.E.C.D. also forecast 2006 growth at 3.5 percent, but other economists think that may be too optimistic.
Who are these Economists? Are they from an organization that is as focused on national economic data as the OECD or is it some angy economic prof at CUNY who is upset the communists lost.
Oh.... sorry :-p that would add some perspective wouldn't it.
Now investors, whose stock-buying had been fueling an end-of-year rally, fear that the latest positive figures will lead the Federal Reserve to take the punchbowl away by raising interest rates more than most analysts expected just a few weeks ago. In turn, that could further slow the housing market, dampen consumer spending and crimp corporate profits. "The two major concerns are the extent of slowdown in housing and how it can feed into growth and consumer spending," said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., a research firm in New York.
"Even though housing hasn't slowed down but we no it will and soon."
"even though housing prices are more an aspect of local economics..."
Now he names a economicst here for a Research firm but we don't know anything about his firm... way to work that hit piece
The Commerce Department said today that new home sales jumped 13 percent in October, to an annual pace of 1.42 million, a record. But that contradicted earlier data that shows existing home sales slowing, construction activity easing, falling mortgage applications and declining confidence among home builders.
"I basically have a wait-and-see attitude with some healthy suspicion about this report," said David Seiders, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. "Either there is something that all of those other reports are not telling us, or this will get revised."
In another seemingly upbeat report, the Conference Board showed consumer confidence jumped 16 percent. Still, that is below the level before Hurricane Katrina tore up the Gulf Coast last summer. And the Commerce Department said orders for durable goods - big-ticket items that last more than three years - jumped 3.4 percent, but most of that increase was concentrated in military and commercial planes.
Hinting that the good news is all doctored up.
Hey thats a great way to say that the Bush economy really isn't any good.
"That is going to push up production activity into the first half of the year," said Mike Fratantoni, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, which expects 3.7 percent economic growth in 2006, up from 3.6 percent in 2005. "The second half of the year, we see somewhat of a drop off."
And priming the pump for the big lie election time economic news coverage.
Once again the NYT giving you their truth so you don't have to find it yourself